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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 01 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2406 (N03E03, Cro/beta) and Region 2407 (N15W68, Cro/beta) underwent showed decay as the period progressed. Region 2405 (S21W09) lost its spots and is now plage only. There is a new spot group that emerged near the east limb. Further spot reports are needed to assign a SWPC region number.
Far-side activity has been attributed to a CME that occurred off of the northern portion of the disk. There was an eruptive prominence off of the SW limb near 01/0015 UTC and a filament eruption centered near S18W64 occurred from 01/0605 UTC to 01/0752 UTC. Neither event is visible yet in LASCO coronagraph imagery. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low on day one (01 Sep). Solar activity is expected to decrease further to very low levels on days two and three (02-03 Sep) with a slight chance for C-class flares.
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 2912 pfu at 31/1940 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels on day one (01 Sep). A decrease to normal to moderate levels is expected on day two (02 Sep) and continue into day three (03 Sep) as a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becomes Earth-connected.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicated ambient conditions as solar wind velocities continued a slow downward trend from near 400 km/s to around 375-385 km/s by periods end. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength ranged from 4-6 nT and the Bz component was variable with a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT. The phi angle remained in a negative (towards) orientation.
Forecast: A solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) is expected later on day one (01 Sep) just ahead of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding a positive polarity CH HSS. The SSBC and CIR are likely to disturb the IMF and solar wind velocities are expected to increase as the CH HSS become geoeffective. The increased solar wind speeds are expected to continue into day two and much of day three (02-03 Sep).
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled early on day one (01 Sep) before becoming agitated to active to minor (G1-Minor) storming levels as the CIR disturbs the Earths magnetosphere and the positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Minor (G1-Minor) storming is expected to continue into day two (02 Sep) before decreasing down to unsettled to active conditions later in the day. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day three (03 Sep) as the CH HSS continues to impact the Earths magnetosphere.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Sep 01 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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