[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels this period. Region 2407 (N16W81, Cso/beta) was stable and produced the largest flare of the period, a B5/Sf flare at 02/0755 UTC. Region 2409 (N05E48, Cso/beta) showed slight growth in spots and overall area but was unremarkable. Region 2406 (N03W18, Bxo/beta) underwent slight decay and was inactive.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO coronagraph imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a slight chance for C-class flares all three days (02-04 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a maximum flux of 3144 pfu at 01/1730 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at primarily high levels into day one (02 Sep) and decrease down to normal to moderate levels later on day one and on into days two and three (03-04 Sep) after a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becomes geoeffective. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters were at ambient levels. Solar wind velocities varied between 350-380 km/s for most of the period with a slight increase late to near 400 km/s. The IMF total field strength was fairly steady between 4-6 nT early then had an increase to as high as 10 nT near 02/0130 UTC. The Bz component was variable, but was predominantly in a northward orientation with a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT. The phi angle was in a negative orientation.

Forecast: A solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) is expected late on day one (02 Sep), to be followed by a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS. The SSBC and CIR are likely to disturb the IMF and solar wind velocities are expected to increase as the CH HSS becomes geoeffective. The higher solar wind speeds are expected to continue into days two and three (03-04 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field remained quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach minor (G1-Minor) storm conditions late on day one (02 Sep) as the Earths geomagnetic field responds to expected disturbances due to the CIR and CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day two (03 Sep) due to CH HSS influences. Unsettled levels are expected on day three (04 Sep) as CH HSS effects wane.

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