[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels with no flares observed. Region 2411 (N14E30, Hsx/alpha) exhibited some trailer spot decay while Region 2412 (S07E50, Cao/beta) showed some weak flux emergence and trailer spot growth in its trailer spots. No coronal mass ejections were detected in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (07-09 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a maximum value of 1,973 pfu observed at 06/1410 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (07-08 Sep). As geomagnetic activity subsides on day three (09 Sep), electron flux values are expected to return to moderate to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (07-09 Sep).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds increased through the period from initial values near 460 km/s to end-of-period values near 540 km/s. IMF total field values ranged from 4-9 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -7 nT. The phi angle was steady in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation through about 07/0100 UTC when the phi angle indicated some variability in a negative (towards the Sun) orientation. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on days one and two (07-08 Sep) due to continued CH HSS influence. A return to near-background levels is expected by day three (09 Sep) as CH HSS effects subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels until 06/1800-2100 UTC when active field conditions were observed in response to an episode of sub-storming. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Sep) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. A return to quiet levels is expected by day three (09 Sep) as CH HSS effects subside.

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