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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 08 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels with no flaring noted. Region 2412 (S07E38, Dao/beta) underwent small growth during the period, but remained inactive. Region 2409 (N04W61, Bxo/beta) exhibited growth in overall spots but was inactive. All other regions were stable or underwent decay during the period.
There was a disappearing solar filament (DSF) centered near N18E42 that lifted off between 08/0032 UTC and 08/0137 UTC. No CMEs have been observed on available coronagraph imagery associated with this event.
A CME from the NW limb of the Sun was first visible in LASCO-C2 imagery at 07/1048 UTC. A large filament structure could be seen lifting off the NW quadrant in SDO/AIA 171 imagery beginning at 07/0740 UTC. Forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling indicate a possible weak glancing blow on 11 Sep.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares over the next three days (08-10 Sep).
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a maximum value of 2,560 pfu at 07/1750 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (08 Sep). Electron flux values are expected to reach normal to high levels on days two and three (09-10 Sep) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters measured at the ACE spacecraft indicated CH HSS effects from a positive polarity coronal hole and possible effects from a CME that lifted off on 4 Sep. Solar wind velocities decreased steadily throughout the period from around 600-625 km/s early to near 500 km/s by periods end. The IMF total field strength was steady between 7 to 10 nT until near 08/0100 UTC when it slowly increased to 21 nT due to the possible CME effects. The Bz component was variable until it turned predominantly northward as the total magnetic field strength increased, and reached a maximum deflection of -11 nT near 07/1500 UTC. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) orientation until a solar sector boundary change (SSBC) at 08/0100 UTC when the orientation flipped to a negative (toward) polarity.
Forecast: Solar wind and IMF parameters are expected to remain enhanced into day one (08 Sep) due to continuing effects from the CH HSS and the possible CME. A steady decrease in wind speeds and IMF field strength is expected on days two and three (09-10 Sep) as CH HSS effects wane.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was predominantly at moderate (G2-Moderate) storm levels due to CH HSS effects. Late in the period the geomagnetic field recovered to unsettled conditions.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels on day one (08 Sep) due to continued enhanced conditions from the CH HSS and possible CME effects. Conditions are expected to be at quiet to active levels on day two (09 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Sep) as CH HSS effects wane.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Sep 08 20:07 UTC]()
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