[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 10 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels through the period with only low level B-class flares to note. New NOAA SWPC Region 2414 (S10E07, Axx/alpha) was assigned to an emergent spot. All remaining regions were stable or in decay.

A 7 degree long filament, centered near S04W11, disappeared between 10/0429 UTC and 10/0614 UTC. LASCO coronagraph imagery was still unavailable to determine if a coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with this activity.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on days one through three (10-12 Sep) with a slight chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach normal to high levels on days one and two (10-11 Sep). Electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day three (12 Sep) due to electron distribution caused by the increased solar wind from a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and possible CME impact. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind parameters measured at the ACE spacecraft were indicative of lingering CME effects early, then returned to nominal conditions near 10/0000 UTC. Wind speeds were steady in the 390-420 km/s range throughout the period. Total field strength was enhanced early and predominantly in the 8-10 nT range before steadily decreasing to near 6 nT for the second half of the period. The Bz component was predominantly southward for the first half of the period with a maximum deflection of -9 nT. Bz remained predominantly northward After 10/0000 UTC. The Phi angle was positive until around 10/0100 UTC when it switched to a negative orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain benign for the rest of day one (10 Sep). Solar wind velocities and total field are expected to become enhanced on day two and continue into day three (11-12 Sep) due to a possible glancing blow from a CME associated with a filament eruption on 7 Sep. Additionally, a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to arrive on day two.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached moderate (G2-Moderate) storming levels due lingering effects from the 4 Sep CME.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to be at active to moderate (G2-Moderate) storming conditions on day one (10 Sep) due to the onset of a CIR ahead of the subsequent CH HSS. On days two and three (11-12 Sep), possible CME arrival and the recurrent CH HSS are likely to cause minor (G1-Minor) storming levels.

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