Re: [Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 09 1231 UTC

[Ben Wilbanks <benw01@earthlink.net>]

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On Sep 9, 2015, at 3:07 PM, nw7us@sunspotwatch.com wrote:

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 09 1231 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels with no flaring noted. The numbered regions on the visible disk were mostly stable and inactive.

There was a filament eruption near S20 and center disk that began at 09/0504 UTC and ended at 09/0719 UTC. This event will need further analysis to determine if there is a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with it when LASCO coronagraph imagery becomes available.

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on days one through three (09-11 Sep) with a slight chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach normal to high levels on days one through three (09-11 Sep) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters measured at the ACE spacecraft reflected lingering CME effects from the 04 Sept CME. Total field strength steadily decreased from 20 nT early to 10 nT by periods end. The Bz component was positive for the first half of the period, then switched to a negative component near 09/0000 UTC and remained steady at 8-10 nT. Wind speeds steadily declined from near 500 km/s to begin the period to near 400 km/s by the end of the period. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind velocities are expected to continue at nominal speeds. Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced again later on day three (11 Sep) due to a possible CME glancing blow from a filament eruption on 7 Sep. Additionally, a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of another positive polarity CH HSS may arrive late on day three.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached moderate (G2-Moderate) storming levels due to CME effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at moderate (G2-Moderate) storming levels conditions on day one (09 Sep) due to the lingering CME effects. Unsettled conditions are expected on day two (10 Sep) as CME effects wane. Day three (11 Sep) is expected to see an increase to active levels as the geomagnetic field responds to the possible glancing blow CME from the 7 Sep eruption and the CIR ahead of the recurrent CH HSS.

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