[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels with an isolated C1/Sf flare observed at 11/2137 UTC from developing Region 2414 (S11W28, Dai/beta-gamma). Region 2414 continued to exhibit moderate growth in its leader and trailer spots. Region 2415 (S21E69, Dai/beta) produced a few B-class flares as it continued to rotate onto the disk. New Region 2417 (N23W42, Hrx/alpha) emerged on the disk this period. The remaining three spotted regions were quiet and stable.

An approximate 12 degree filament, centered near N23W15, was observed in GONG H-alpha imagery erupting between 11/1144-1309 UTC. LASCO C2 imagery observed a coronal mass ejection (CME) lifting off the NW limb, first visible at 11/1436 UTC. Analysis of this CME, followed by a WSA-Enlil model run, suggests the CME trajectory to be well off the Sun-Earth line.

Forecast: There is a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for R1 (Minor) flare activity over the next three days (12-14 Sep) with Regions 2414 or 2415 being the likely source of activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak value of 1,274 pfu observed at 11/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels with a chance for very high levels over the next three days (12-14 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continue to reflect enhanced conditions due to a combination of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence and CME effects. Solar wind speeds began the period near 675 km/s, but have slowly decreased in speed to end-of-period values approaching 525 km/s. IMF total field strength ranged between 2-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 7 nT. The phi angle remained in a predominately positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next three days (12-14 Sep) due to the influence of multiple positive polarity CH HSSs.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels between 11/1200-1500 UTC and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels between 11/1500-1800 UTC, all caused by the simultaneous onset of a positive polarity CH HSS and the likely arrival of the 07 Sep CME.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on day one (12 Sep), unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on day two (13 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Sep), all due to the influence of multiple positive polarity CH HSSs.

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