[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with a few B-class events observed from Region 2414 (S10W43, Dhi/beta-gamma). The region continued to exhibit development in both size and magnetic complexity. New Region 2418 (S15E75, Hsx/alpha) was numbered this period. This region appears to be the leading edge of old active Region 2403 (S15, L=192) which produced numerous C-class and R1 (Minor) flares on its previous transit. The remaining four spotted regions were stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed. Forecast: There is a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares over the next three days (13-15 Sep) with Regions 2414, 2415 (S22E47, Dai/beta-gamma) and 2418 being the likely source of activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum observed value of 10,410 pfu at 12/1815 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (13-15 Sep) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected waning coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 550 km/s to end-of-period values near 475 km/s. IMF total field strength values ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -3 nT. The phi angle remained in a predominately positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day one (13 Sep) due to the onset of a positive polarity, northern polar-connected CH HSS. Wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s are anticipated as the CH HSS become geoeffective. Decreasing solar wind speeds are expected on day two (14 Sep) as CH HSS influence weakens. However, an additional solar wind speed enhancement to around 500 km/s is likely on day three (15 Sep) as another positive polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels late on day one (13 Sep) and again early on day three (15 Sep) due to multiple positive polarity CH HSSs moving into a geoeffective position. Field activity is expected to reach active levels on day two (14 Sep) due to an anticipated transition period between CH HSSs.

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