[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with only weak B-class flare activity observed. Regions 2414 (S10W55, Eso/beta) and 2415 (S22E34, Cai/beta-gamma) both exhibited minor decay throughout the period although Region 2415 appeared to maintain weak, mixed polarities within its intermediate spots. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: There is a chance for C-class flares with a slight chance for R1 (Minor) flares over the next three days (14-16 Sep) with Regions 2414 or 2415 being the likely source of activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum value of 11,910 pfu observed at 13/1425 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (14-16 Sep) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a nominal solar wind environment through about 14/0745 UTC. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from 480 km/s to about 390 km/s. IMF total field strength (Bt) values ranged between 3-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-4 nT.

After 14/0745 UTC, wind speeds gradually increased from 390 km/s to near 500 km/s by periods end. Bt increased to 10 nT while Bz indicated more variability with a maximum southward extent of -8 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately positive (away from the Sun) orientation throughout the period. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become more enhanced mid to late on day one (14 Sep) into day two (15 Sep) due to the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speeds are expected to increase to near 600 km/s. Solar wind speeds are likely to remain slightly enhanced on day three (16 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of day one (14 Sep). Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are anticipated on day two (15 Sep) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. The proximity to autumnal equinox suggests that the effects of the positive polarity feature should produce slightly more enhanced effects at Earth. By day three (16 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated active period are expected as CH HSS effects wane.

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