[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2422 (S20E30, Dao/beta) showed growth in areal coverage and spots and produced most of the flare activity, including the largest flare of the period, a C3/Sf at 23/1857 UTC. Region 2421 (N15E05, Cao,beta) was stable and produced two B-class flares late in the period. New Region 2423 (S09W15, Bxo/beta) was numbered during the period, but was inactive. All other regions were benign and unremarkable.

A CME occurred associated with the eruption of an approximately 30 degree N-S oriented filament from near the southeast limb. This event is under further analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling to determine if it has potential to be geoeffective.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares over the forecast period (24-26 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at normal background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (24-25 Sep), followed by an increase to high levels on day three (26 Sep) due to influences from elevated solar wind speeds from an anticipated CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at quiet background levels for days one through three (24-26 Sep).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated elevated but waning conditions. Solar wind velocities reached as high as 550 km/s early in the period before steadily declining into the 450-470 km/s range. Bt was elevated early then finished the period between 4-6nT. Bz was primarily positive, but decreased momentarily to near -9 nT around 23/1600 UTC. The phi angle rotated several times between positive and negative orientations.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated but waning for day one (24 Sep), before the next anticipated feature, a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream, which is expected to cause enhanced conditions for days two and three (25-26 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled with an isolated period of active levels due to a brief period of negative Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet to unsettled levels with possible isolated periods of active levels for day one (24 Sep) due to the gradual waning of current enhanced conditions. Quiet to active conditions are expected for days two and three (25-26 Sep) under the influence of the anticipated negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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