[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to a C1/Sf flare at 24/2146 UTC from Region 2422 (S20E17, Dai/beta-gamma) and a C3/Sf flare at 24/2347 UTC from Region 2418 (S16W84, Hax/alpha). Slight to moderate growth was observed in the intermediate area of Region 2422 along with an increase in magnetic complexity. Slight decay was observed in the trailing spots of Region 2420 (N10E16, Eai/beta). Region 2421 (N17W02, Dai/beta) also appeared to be in a growth phase. New Regions that emerged on the visible disk include Region 2424 (N13W23, Bxo/beta), 2425 (S06E06, Bxo/beta), and 2426 (N16E55, Bxo/beta). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares over the forecast period (25-27 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 616 pfu at 24/1645 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (25-26 Sep), followed by an increase to high levels on day three (27 Sep) due to influences of elevated solar wind speeds from an anticipated negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels for days one through three (25-27 Sep).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced with solar wind speeds between 424 km/s and 548 km/s. Total field ranged from 1 nT to 7 nT with the Bz component between +6 nT and -5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominantly negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: Further enhancement in solar wind conditions are expected by mid to late on day one (25 Sep) as a negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to be enhanced through early on day three (27 Sep) when coronal hole influences are expected to diminish.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through late on day one (25 Sep). An increase to active levels (Below G1-Minor) is expected late on day one through early on day two (26 Sep) as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. Mostly unsettled levels are expected to continue through day two. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (27 Sep) as CH HSS conditions diminish.

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