[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Sep 28 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Sep 28 0507 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 September 2015

Solar activity began the week at low levels but reached moderate levels at the end of the period. Region 2420 (N10, L=102, class/area Ekc/290 on 21 Sep) produced a C8/Sn flare at 21/0518 UTC on 21 Sep and several B-class events on 22 Sep. Region 2422 (S20, L=102, class/area Ekc/650 on 27 Sep) produced the majority of the activity for the rest of the week with several C-class flares from 23-27 Sep as well as two M-class flares on 27 Sep. The first M-class flare was an M1/1f at 27/1040 UTC and the second reached M1/1n at 27/2100 UTC. It also produced a C9/1n flare at 27/1958 UTC that was accompanied by a 130 sfu Tenflare.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels from 21-22 Sep due to waning coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 23 Sep with an isolated active period from 23/1500-1800 UTC due to a prolonged period of negative Bz. Quiet to unsettled levels returned on 24 Sep followed by quiet conditions for the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 September - 24 October 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels from 28 Sep - 03 Oct due to flare potential from Regions 2420, 2421 (N17, L=120, class/area Dac/110 on 26 Sep), and 2422. Very low to low levels are expected from 04-14 Oct. A chance for moderate levels returns from 15-24 Oct as Region 2420 is anticipated to rotate back onto the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels possible on 03 and 06 Oct, 09-15 Oct and 18-24 Oct following recurrent CH HSS events.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Active periods are likely on 01-02 Oct, 04-05 Oct, 07-09 Oct, and 16-17 Oct due to recurrent coronal hole high speed streams.

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