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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels this period. Three low level M-class flares were observed. Two M1/1n flares were observed at 27/2100 UTC and 28/0735 UTC from Region 2422 (S20W23, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and an M3/Sf was observed at 28/0355 UTC from Region 2423 (S09W73, Dac/beta-gamma). Of note was a C9/1n flare at 27/1958 UTC from Region 2422 which had several fixed frequency radio bursts including an 130 sfu Tenflare. The M3 flare from Region 2423 appeared to have a coronal mass ejection off the SW limb in SDO/AIA 193 imagery beginning at 28/0351 UTC. Further analysis will be conducted as coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Slight to moderate growth occurred in Region 2423. Continued growth was observed in Region 2422 along with separation within its intermediate spots. Region 2421 (N16W43, Dai/beta) was in a decay phase. Slight growth occurred in Region 2427 (N18E28, Cai/beta).

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to continue at moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a chance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flares for the forecast period (28-30 Sep). Regions 2422 and 2423 are the likely sources for significant flaring activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 477 pfu at 27/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one through three (28-30 Sep). There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV event (above S1-Minor) for days one through three (28-30 Sep) due to significant flare potential of Regions 2422 and 2423.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind conditions were at nominal levels over the period. Solar wind speed declined from 451 km/s to near 360 km/s. Total field was relatively steady near 5 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be nominal for days one through three (28-30 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet over the next three days (28-30 Sep).

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