[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels due to an M7/1b flare from Region 2422 (S18W36, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) at 28/1458 UTC. Region 2422 continued to exhibit growth in its leader spot area and maintained its delta magnetic configuration, remaining the most complex region on the visible disk. This region was also responsible for several other M-class flares, as well as multiple C-class flares. Region 2423 (S08W83, Dac/beta-gamma) was also very active during the period, producing four M1 flares and a few C-class flares, as it continued its transit around the west limb. Region 2427 (N18E29, Cai/beta) showed signs of overall growth in its intermediate and trailer spots, and began to produce a few low-level sub-faint flares.

Despite the increase in flare activity, analysis of available coronagraph imagery does not appear to indicate any Earth-directed CMEs. However, analysis will continue as more coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), with a chance for X-class (R3, Strong or greater) flares on all three days (29 Sep-01 Oct) due to the enhanced flare potential from active Regions 2422 and 2423.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on all three days (29 Sep-01 Oct). There is a chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could reach 10 pfu or above (S1, Minor or greater) on all three days (29 Sep-01 Oct) due to the now geoeffective position of Region 2422, as well as Region 2423 as it rotates to and just beyond the limb.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters continued to reflect ambient conditions. Solar wind velocity ranged between 330-384 km/s. Total magnetic field strength held fairly steady around 3-5 nT, while the Bz component was primarily negative with isolated periods in positive territory. Maximum southward deflection reached -4 nT a few times throughout the period. The phi angle was primarily negative (away from the Sun) during the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain nominal on day one (29 Sep). Solar wind velocity may increase slightly later on day two and into day three (30 Sep-01 Oct) due to a small, positive polarity coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the remainder of day one (29 Sep). The geomagnetic field is likely to see additional periods of unsettled conditions on days two and three (30 Sep-01 Oct) due to the possible weak increase in solar wind velocity associated with the positive polarity CH HSS.

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