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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 30 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels as Region 2422 (S18W49, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M1/1b at 29/1924 UTC and an M1 flare at 30/1059 UTC. There was a Type II radio sweep (695 km) associated with the first flare, but initial analysis of the available coronagraph images was inconclusive due to lack of usable imagery. Further analysis will be conducted as additional imagery becomes available. This region displayed growth in its intermediate spots and appeared to be consolidating with the trailer spots, yet maintained its complex magnetic structure.
Region 2427 (N18E17, Dai/beta) continued to grow, mainly in its intermediate spot area as well, yet only managed to produce a handful of sub-faint flares during the period. The remaining two numbered spot regions were mostly quiet and inactive throughout the period.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare activity likely, and a chance for X-class (R3, Strong or greater) flares on all three days (30 Sep-02 Oct), due primarily to the greater flare probability from Region 2422.
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal levels with brief increases to moderate levels all three days (30 Sep-02 Oct). There remains a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach 10 pfu or greater levels (S1, Minor or greater) all three days due to the geoeffective position of Region 2423 and the continued rotation of Region 2422 into a better connected position.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: The solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters continued to reflect an ambient environment. Solar wind velocities began the period near 350 km/s but exhibited a steady decrease, ending the period near 320 km/s. The total field strength was fairly steady at 3 to 4 nT. The Bz component varied between +4 nT and -2 nT through the end of the UT day, at which point, it remained in a mostly positive orientation. The phi angle held steady in a negative (towards the Sun) sector for the majority of the period.
Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain nominal on days one and two (30 Sep-01 Oct), however recurrence suggests a solar sector boundary change (SSBC) to positive (away from Sun) is likely. If this occurs, a slight increase in solar wind velocity may be expected, along with a slight enhancement in total magnetic field strength. Solar wind speed and a more disturbed IMF are expected on day three (02 Oct) due to a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Sep-01 Oct) due to the expected solar wind velocity and total magnetic field strength increases. Active conditions are expected on day three (02 Oct) due to the positive polarity CH HSS.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Sep 30 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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