[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Oct 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2429 (S19E25) decayed to plage and new Region 2430 (S17E53, Hrx/alpha) remained stable during the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares for the forecast period (09-11 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels during the period, reaching a peak flux of 21,590 pfu at 08/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at moderate to high levels, with a chance for very high levels, for the forecast period (09-11 Oct) following the redistribution of particles following the passage of the coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background (Below S1-Minor) levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under a trans-equatorial positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed slowly decreased from a peak of 770 km/s to around 640 km/s. Total field varied between 3 nT and 5 nT. The Bz component was predominately negative until approximately 08/1730 UTC then was variable between +/- 5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at elevated levels through the forecast period as CH HSS effects persist. Solar wind speeds are expected to slowly decline on days two and three (10-11 Sep) as effects diminish.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at active to G1(Minor) storm levels during the period due to CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels with G1-Minor storm levels likely for the remainder of day one (09 Oct) with quiet to active levels on days two and three (10-11 Oct) due to waning CH HSS effects.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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