[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Oct 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2430 (S17E40, Hrx/alpha) remained stable and inactive. A B1 flare, the only reportable event of the period, was observed at 09/2139 UTC from an unnumbered region behind the southeast limb. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares for the forecast period (10-12 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high to very high levels during the period, reaching a peak flux of 57,093 pfu at 09/1505 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at high levels with very high levels likely for the forecast period (10-12 Oct) due to coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background (Below S1-Minor) levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under a trans-equatorial positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed declined slowly over the period from around 715 km/s at 09/0154 UTC to around 600 km/s by the end of the period. Total field ranged from 1 nT to 7 nT while the Bz component was between +4 and -5 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive (away).

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to slowly decline on days one and two (10-11 Oct) as effects diminish. Another enhancement in total field intensity and solar wind speed is likely by day three (12 Oct) due to a transition into a northern positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to waning CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10-11 Oct) as CH HSS effects slowly diminish. By mid to late on day three (12 Sep) activity is expected to reach minor (G1) storm levels as the Earth transitions into a northern positive polarity CH HSS.

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