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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 13 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Several flares were produced by a new region of flux just starting to rotate on the east limb near S10. The largest was a C4 flare at 13/0116 UTC. As the region further rotates onto the visible disk further analysis will determine its magnetic classification. Region 2432 (S22E23, Cai/beta) developed a new leader spot and produced a couple new spots in the intermediate and trailer regions of the group. Region 2433 (N19W69, Dro/beta) added a few intermediate spots and exhibited minor growth in the leader spot. All other spot groups were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available LASCO imagery during the period.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with an chance for C-class flares on day one (13 Oct). Probability for C-class flares become increasingly likely on day two and three (14-15 Oct) as old Region 2423 (S09, L=152) continues to rotate around the east limb.
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 34,918 pfu observed at 12/1635 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to range from normal to high levels on day one through three (13-15 Oct) as the influence from the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) persists. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, suggested continued enhancement from the northern positive polarity coronal hole. Solar wind speeds gradually increased further starting the period around 500 km/s and increasing to near 550 km/s by 13/1200 UTC. Density trended lower beginning the period at 5 p/cc and decreasing to near 3 p/cc by periods end. Total field was mostly steady between 4 to 8 nT and the Bz component variable between -7 to 6 nT. Phi angle remained mostly positive for the past 24 hours.
Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected remain enhanced on days one and two (13-14 Oct). Early on day three (15 Oct), a further enhancement in wind speeds are possible as a large, recently-developed equatorial area of the coronal hole begins influencing Earths magnetosphere.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm levels during the 12/1500-1800 UTC synoptic period. Geomagnetic storming was due to a prolonged period of southward Bz under enhanced solar winds from the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS in the Suns northern hemisphere.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active on days one and two (13-14 Oct) with the possibility of an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm levels. Day three (15 Oct) will likely see G1 (Minor) storm levels in response to the coronal hole along the equatorial portion of the Sun becoming geoeffective.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Oct 13 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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