[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Oct 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2334 (S08E67, Cai/beta) produced the largest flare in the past 24 hours, a C9 flare at 13/1411 UTC. Region 2334 exhibited only minor changes with slight decay noted by the leader spots. Region 2432 (S21E10, Cro/beta) underwent consolidation in its trailer spot and the formation of a new intermediate spot with rudimentary penumbra. All other regions were mostly stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with an increasing chance for M-class activity (R1 to R2 - Minor-Moderate) during the next three days (14-16 Oct). Region 2334 is the most likely contributor of event level flares currently on the disk. Further increasing flare potential is old Region 2422 (S17, L=103), expected to return beginning on day two (15 Oct). The old region produced 16 R1 (Minor) and two R2 (Moderate) events before transiting around the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 10,091 pfu observed on the GOES 13 satellite at 13/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to range from moderate to high levels through the forecast period (14-16 Oct) due to elevated solar winds from the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, suggested continued enhancement from the large, positive polarity coronal hole. Solar wind speeds were elevated through period at with fluctuations between roughly 450 - 600 km/s. Total magnetic field (Bt) measurements ranged from 4-7 nT while the Bz component was variable between - 7 and +5 nT. Phi angle remained in a predominately positive (away from the Sun) sector with brief intervals of negative (towards the Sun) from around 13/2120 UTC to 13/2340 UTC and around 14/0900 UTC to 14/1000 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected remain enhanced through the forecast period (14-16 Oct) as effects from a geoeffective, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) persist.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels, with occasional periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels caused by enhanced solar winds from a geoeffective, positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with periods of minor storm intervals (G1-Minor) all three days of the forecast period (14-16 Oct). This activity is due to continued effects from a positive polarity CH HSS.

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