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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Oct 19 0246 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
12 - 18 October 2015
Solar activity ranged from low to moderate (R1-Minor) activity
levels. Low levels were observed on 12-14 and 18 October with
moderate levels observed on 15-17 October. Region 2434 (S10, L=163,
class/area Dki/260 on 17 Oct) produced a majority of the
period's activity with 33 C-class flares and two M1/Sf flares
observed on 15/2331 UTC and 16/0616 UTC. M1 flare activity was also
observed from Region 2437 (S19, L=096, class/area Hax/060 on 18 Oct)
at 17/2023 UTC and 17/2042 UTC. Regions 2435 (S15, L=123, class/area
Hax/030 on 17 Oct) and 2436 (N09, L=112, class/area Eai/210 on 18
Oct) also produced a few C-class flares. No Earth-directed coronal
mass ejections were observed during the summary period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 12-17 October with moderate levels recorded on 18
October. The high levels were all due to an enhanced solar wind
envirornment caused by coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS).
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm
(G1-Minor) levels. Quiet to minor storm levels were observed on
12-14 October as Earth's geomagnetic field was under the
influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. During this time frame,
solar wind speeds reached a peak of about 615 km/s early on 13
October before declining to about 450 km/s by the end of the 14th.
>From 15-17 October, quiet to unsettled levels were observed with an
isolated active period observed late on the 17th. Winds speeds,
during this time frame, further declined to reach a low of about 335
km/s late on the 17th. Field levels increased to unsettled to minor
storm levels on 18 October as an equatorial, positive polarity CH
HSS moved into a geoeffective position. Wind speed increased to a
peak of near 480 km/s by about 18/1800 UTC, total field strength
peaked at 12 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward
extent of -8 nT at about 18/0800 UTC.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 October - 14 November 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with M-class (R1-R2
Minor-Moderate) flares likely through 29 October as Regions 2434 and
2437 transit the disk. Very low to low levels are expected from 30
October to 06 November. Activity levels are expected to be at low
levels with M-class flares likely from 07-14 November as old Regions
2434 and 2437 rotate back onto the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 19-31 October.
Moderate to high levels are expected on 01-14 November as a series
of CH HSSs become geoeffective enhancing the solar wind environment.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet to
unsettled levels through 02 November with isolated active levels
possible on 29 October due to weak positive polarity CH HSS effects.
>From 03-14 November, activity levels are expected to increase to
unsettled to minor to major storm levels (G1-G2 Minor-Moderate) as a
large, recurrent, equatorial, positve polarity CH HSS rotates into a
geoeffective position. Minor to major storm levels are possible on
03-05 November with minor storm levels possible on 08-10 and 14
November.
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![Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Oct 19 16:10 UTC]()
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