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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low as only low-level C-class flares were observed this period. Region 2436 (N08E54, Eai/beta-gamma) exhibited minor growth in its intermediate spot area and is the largest and most complex region on the disk. Region 2434 (S10W01, Dac/beta) continued a decay trend but some minor spot resurgence was observed north of its main spot. The remaining three active regions were stable throughout the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) flares over the next three days (19-21 Oct) with Region 2436 being the likely source of activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on day one (19 Oct) with moderate to high levels likely on days two and three (20-21 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a return to a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speed decreased from a maximum value near 475 km/s to end-of-period values near 400 km/s. IMF total field strength reached 9 nT and Bz reached -8 nT early in the period. The phi angle was steady in a positive (away) solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at near-background levels on days one and two (19-20 Oct). A solar wind enhancement is expected late on day three (21 Oct) due to the anticipated onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels at 18/1200 UTC followed by an isolated period of active conditions in response to a likely CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed after 18/1800 UTC due to the return of a nominal solar wind environment. Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (19-20 Oct) with quiet to active levels expected on day three (21 Oct) due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS late in the day.

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