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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2435 (S17E67, Axx/alpha) produced a C4 flare at 16/1324 UTC and Region 2434 (S11E26, Dai/beta-gamma) produced a C4 flare at 16/1342 UTC, which were the largest events of the period. Region 2434 began to show signs of penumbral consolidation and minor decay late in the period but persists as the most complex region on the visible disk. New Region 2436 (N07E73, Hax/alpha) was numbered this period and additional spots rotated into view late in the period as the region transited the northeast limb. The remaining active regions were stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) over the next three days (17-19 Oct) with Region 2434 being the likely source of M-class flare activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a maximum flux value of 2,473 pfu observed at 16/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (17-19 Oct) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels throughout the period. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 400 km/s to end-of-period values near 350 km/s. IMF total field strength values varied between 1-7 nT and Bz reached a southward component of -5 nT mid period. The phi angle was variable early in the period but settled into a negative (toward) solar sector orientation after 17/0200 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain near background levels over the next three days (17-19 Oct) with only a minor solar wind speed enhancement possible as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moves into geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels over the next three days (17-19 Oct) due to weak CH HSS influence followed by a return to a nominal solar wind regime.

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