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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2436 (N07E13, Eki/beta-gamma) produced a C7/1n flare at 21/1756 UTC, the highest of the period. The region exhibited decay in penumbral and umbral area near the trailer spot over the past 24 hours. A region of emerging flux was noted near S18W17. If the growth persist the region will numbered. Region 2437 (S20E24, Hax/alpha) and Region 2435 (S14W02, Hrx/alpha) were mostly inactive.

Region 2434 (S10W41, Dao/beta) produced a slow-rising, long-duration, C4/Sf flare at 22/0340 UTC. An associated partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery beginning at 22/0330 UTC. The CME signature suggests most of the ejecta is off the Sun-Earth line but a peripheral component is possibly Earth-directed. The CME is currently being further analyzed and modeled to estimate the extent and timing of the CMEs outer boundary. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class, R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over the next three days (22-24 Oct).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels during the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the forecast period (22-24 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicate the waning influence of the negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Total magnetic field strength (Bt) declined from a peak of 11 nT at the beginning of the period to around 5 nT by around 21/1500 UTC. The Bz component has remained predominantly northward. Solar wind speeds were elevated to around 450 km/s but have gradually declined to roughly 400 km/s by the periods end. Phi has been oscillating between the positive (away) and negative (towards) sector throughout the past 24 hours.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue declining on day one (22 Oct) as CH HSS influence continues to decrease. Days two and three (23-24 Oct) should see a return to an ambient solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to enhanced solar winds from a negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (22 Oct) as CH HSS effects subside. Days two and three (23-24 Oct) should see a return to mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions.

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