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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the period was a slow rising, long-duration C3 flare at 27/1429 UTC from a region around the SW limb. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 27/1325 UTC, but analysis indicated the CME did not appear to have an Earth-directed component.

Region 2436 (N09W77, Eso/beta) remained the most active and complex region on the disk. However, the region exhibited decay in the intermediate and trailer regions of the group. Region 2442 (N16E16, Cao/beta) developed rapidly and was numbered over night. All other regions were relatively stable or in decay.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over the next three days (28-30 Oct), with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares primarily due to the flare potential of Region 2436, Region 2440, and the active region just beyond the east limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over the next three days (28-30 Oct).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, reflected mostly background conditions. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) was between 3 - 6 nT. Bz was predominantly southward, with a maximum deflection of -4 nT, until around 28/0200 UTC when it became mostly positive near 2 nT for the remainder of the period. Phi was primarily in a positive orientation until right around 28/0100 UTC when it oscillated into a negative (towards) orientation. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased throughout the period from about 375 km/s to end-of-period speeds near 325 km/s.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain near background levels throughout day one (28 Oct). On day two (29 Oct), an enhancement in total magnetic field (Bt) and periodic shifts in the phi angle are expected as a result of an anticipated solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC). Conditions are expected to persist into day three (30 Oct).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (28 Oct). By days two and three (29 - 30 Oct), a SSBC should begin to influence Earths magnetosphere, making active conditions likely in response to the enhanced activity.

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