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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2443 (N05E61, Ekc/beta) remained the most complex and active group on the visible disk, and produced the majority of the flare activity over the past 24 hours. However, the largest of the period, a C5 flare, occurred at 30/0841 UTC from a region just beyond the northwest limb. Due to data gaps in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery, analysis of any potential coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is delayed, but will be accomplished as soon as imagery becomes available. The remaining numbered regions on the disk were either stable or exhibited signs of decay.

Analysis was conducted on the filament, centered near S25W20, that began lifting off around 29/1442 UTC. It does not appear to have an Earth-directed component and should not have any impact on the Earth.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels over the next three days (30 Oct - 01 Nov), with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 2443.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels for the majority of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was still slightly elevated, but has returned to near background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (30 Oct - 01 Nov). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels for the next three days (30 Oct - 01 Nov).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, reflected mostly ambient conditions. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) showed a gradual increase from 3 nT at the beginning of the period to near 10 nT by periods end. Bz was mostly northward through the period, with occasional southward deviations as low as -5 nT. Wind speeds averaged near 330 km/s for most of the day. Phi angle was in the negative sector (towards the Sun) for the entire period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain near background levels on day one (30 Oct). Late on the day a weak enhancement is possible from a glancing blow from the 27 Oct CME. Elevated conditions may persist into day two (31 Oct) before returning to near background levels by day three (01 Nov).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels, with an isolated unsettled period from 30/0000-0300 UTC.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled through day one (30 Oct), with isolated periods of active conditions caused by a possible transient from 27 Oct. Isolated active periods could persist through day two (31 Oct). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return by day three (01 Nov).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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