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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2437 (S18W62, Cro/beta), 2440 (N19W37, Dao/beta), and 2443 (N04E72, Dai/beta) all produced low-level, C-class flares during the period. Region 2443 was the only region that appeared to exhibit any sort of development over the period, while the remaining regions on the visible disk were either stable or experienced slight decay.

Significant limb activity continued as Type II (est. shock speed 972 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were recorded that appeared to be associated with an event from just beyond the southwest limb. No significant flare activity was observed during this time, but a coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 29/0236 UTC that is likely associated with these events. Analysis of this event concluded that this CME does not likely have an Earth-directed component, and should not have any impacts at Earth.

The disappearing filament centered near S20E20, mentioned in the previous discussion, and the associated CME were analyzed and determined to not have an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels over the next three days (29-31 Oct), with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares, primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 2436, 2440, and 2443 as well as possible solar limb activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1-Minor radiation storm levels at 29/0550 UTC and had a peak flux value of 23.5 pfu at 29/1000 UTC. Additionally, the greater than 100 MeV proton flux levels reached the 1 pfu threshold at 29/0435 UTC, reaching a peak of 1.59 pfu at 29/0820 UTC. These events are likely associated with the event that occurred from just beyond the southwest limb at approximately 29/0236 UTC.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at S1-Minor solar radiation storm levels for the first half of day one (29 Oct) before returning to background levels by days two and three (30 - 31 Oct).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, continued to reflect mostly background conditions. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) ranged between 1 - 6 nT, while Bz was mostly northward through the period, with occasional southward deviations as low as -3 nT. Wind speeds ranged from 290 km/s to near 330 km/s. Phi angle began the period in the positive sector (away), but rotated into the negative (towards) sector after approximately 29/1915 UTC.

Forecast: With the anticipated arrival of a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) on day one (29 Oct), solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly disturbed, producing enhancements throughout the solar wind environment. Total magnetic field (Bt) is likely to see values to near 12 nT, while the Bz component may see isolated southward deviations as well. Periodic shifts in the phi angle are expected as well as a slight increase in solar wind speeds. These disturbed conditions are expected to persist into days two and three (30 - 31 Oct).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field remained at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled through day one (29 Oct), with isolated periods of active conditions caused by the anticipated SSBC. Isolated active periods are expected to persist through days two and three (30 - 31 Oct) as the field remains agitated from the SSBC.

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