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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2436 (N09E01, Eki/beta-gamma) underwent minor decay and penumbral consolidation this period but persists as the largest and most complex region on the visible disk. Region 2434 (S09W54, Cao/beta) underwent moderate decay this period while the remaining four regions on the disk were relatively stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) over the next three days (23-25 Oct) with Region 2436 being the likely source of activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels this period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced early in the period in response to the long-duration C4 flare from Region 2434 on 22 Oct, but remained well below the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (23-25 Oct) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at near-background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind parameters were steady near 400 km/s until around 22/2200 UTC when speeds slowly increased to around 450 km/s. IMF total field values reached a peak of 7 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT late in the period. The phi angle remained relatively steady in a negative (toward) solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at near-background levels on day one (23 Oct) under a nominal solar wind regime. The anticipated arrival of the 22 Oct CME is expected to cause a solar wind speed increase (~500 km/s) on days two and three (24-25 Oct).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under a nominal solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Oct) under a nominal solar wind regime. Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on days two and three (24-25 Oct) due to the anticipated arrival of the 22 Oct CME.

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