[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Dec 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. The strongest event of the period was an M1/Sf (R1-Minor) flare produced by Region 2473 (S23E69, Dac/beta-delta) at 22/0334 UTC. The region exhibited growth throughout the entire spot group over the past 24 hours. Region 2472 (N03E69, Dai/beta) produced C-class X-ray activity and added several smaller spots around the leader spot. Region 2470 (N13W43, Cho/beta) underwent minor decay in its trailer spot. Newly numbered Region 2474 (N07W45, Dro/beta) developed rudimentary penumbra around its leader and trailer spots but was in decay by the periods end.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) over the next three days (22-24 Dec).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 1,545 pfu at 21/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (22-24 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were indicative of a passing transient. The total magnetic field strength (Bt) was enhanced at the beginning of the period at 17 nT. Bt gradually decreased to between 5-10 nT as the period progressed. The Bz component of the primarily northward, with brief periods of southward deflections. Wind speeds trended upward from 350 km/s to a peak of 505 km/s at 22/0513 UTC before slowly declining to between 400-450 km/s by the periods end. Phi was predominantly negative (towards) throughout the day with a gradual rotation into the positive (away) sector after 22/0700 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect continued waning CME influences on day one (22 Dec). Day two and three (23-24 Dec) are expected to trend towards an ambient solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active conditions during the 22/0900 - 22/1200 UTC synoptic period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on day one (22 Dec) due to waning CME effects. Mostly quiet levels are expected on days two and three (23-24 Dec) as CME effects diminish.

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