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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 21 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels as a source region from behind the NE limb produced a majority of this periods activity to include several C-class flares and two low-level M-class flares. In addition, Region 2468 (S14W73) contributed a low-level C-class flare, but has since lost its lone spot and decayed into a plage region. Slight decay was observed in Region 2470s (N15W27, Eho/beta) trailer spot penumbra.
At 20/1944 UTC, a C2/Sf flare was observed from Region 2468. Shortly afterward, at 20/2012 UTC, limited LASCO C2 imagery observed a slow-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) off the west limb. Forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil modelling determined that this event was off the Sun-Earth line and therefore does not have a geoeffective component.
A type II radio sweep and associated CME, first visible in coronagraph imagery at 21/0126 UTC, accompanied an M2 flare at 21/0103 UTC. However, the event is far-sided and well off the Sun-Earth line.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) all three days (21-23 Dec).
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels all three days (21-23 Dec) as impacts from the 16 Dec CME wane. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE satellite, reflected an enhanced solar wind environment as a result of the 16 Dec CME arrival late on 19 Dec. Total field strength (Bt) remained elevated and ranged between 8-18 nT through the period. The Bz component remained south through the balance of the period and reached extended periods at deflections of -16 to -18 nT. After 21/1030 UTC, Bz finally switched to a northward orientation.
Solar wind speed mostly ranged from 400-420 km/s and decreased to near 370 km/s by periods end. The phi was predominantly in a negative (toward the sun) orientation.
Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one (21 Dec) due to lingering CME influences. Wind parameters are expected to slowly diminish by late on 21 Dec and continue to diminish on days two and three (22-23 Dec) as CME effects wane.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at active to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels due to an enhanced interplanetary magnetic field as a result of the arrival of the CME from 16 Dec.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels on day one (21 Dec) due to continued CME effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (22 Dec) with quiet levels expected on day three (23 Dec) as CME effects wane.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Dec 21 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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