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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 12 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Newly numbered region 2469 (N18E79, Dso/beta) was responsible for the lions share of the activity during the period, producing four low-to-mid level C-class flares as it made its way onto the visible disk. Region 2465 (S05E09, Hax/Alpha) contributed the largest flare of the period, a C5 at 11/1654 UTC, though it exhibited slight decay in spot number and areal extent. All of the other numbered regions were either stable or in decay over the previous 24 hours.
The area between regions 2466 (S13W26, Axx/Alpha and 2463 (S09W40, Hax/Alpha) erupted with a long duration C1 flare combined with a disappearing solar filament that occurred between 12/0352-12/0505 UTC. There is a data gap in LASCO in coronagraph imagery from 11/2230-12/0654 UTC. When the images resume, a partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME), is in progress off the southwest limb. More forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling will be needed to determine if this CME is expected to become geoeffective as more coronagraph imagery becomes available.
Forecast: Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) all three days (12-14 Dec).
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,095 pfu at 11/1745 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days (12-14 Dec) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, reflected continued coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. However,
levels began to decrease or stabilize over the last few hours of the period suggesting a beginning to waning CH HSS effects. Solar wind speed averaged about 650 km/s for most of the period before gradually decreasing to near 560 km/s by periods end. Total IMF strength decreased slightly from between 5-7 nT for the greater part of the last 24 hours to remaining steady at 4 nT. The oscillations in the Bz component began to decrease near 12/0400 UTC and ended the period in the +2/-1 nT range . The phi angle remained in a predominately positive (away from Sun) sector during the period.
Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to be enhanced for the remainder of day one (12 Dec). Nominal conditions are expected to return late into day two and persist through day three (13-14 Dec).
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels during the period due to continued CH HSS effects.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels through the rest of day one (12 Dec) into early on day two (13 Dec) due to CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the latter half of day two through day three (14 Dec) as CH HSS effects wane.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Dec 12 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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