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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest event of the period was a C1 flare at 07/2250 UTC from Region 2463 (S11E17, Eso/beta). This region remained the largest spot group on the visible disk, but continued to dissipate as it decreased in areal coverage and exhibited penumbral decay. Region 2465 (S06E55, Cso/beta) showed slight growth and a slight increase in number of spots. It was responsible for a couple of low-level B-class flares, one of which had a possible coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with it. However, due to its location, the CME did not appear to have an Earth-directed component. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares all three days (08-10 Dec), and a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on days two and three (09-10 Dec). The increased overall flare probability is mainly due to the active region noted in STEREO imagery, due to rotate onto the visible disk over the next couple of days.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 3876 pfu at 07/2100 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels all three days (08-10 Dec) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters indicated a gradual decrease in CH HSS effects. Solar wind speeds exhibited a steady decrease throughout the period, from near 700 km/s to just under 550 km/s by the end of the period. The IMF total field strength began the period near 14 nT, but trended downward to near 4 nT by periods end. The Bz component was variable, mostly staying between +/- 2 nT by the end of the period. The phi angle was primarily positive (away from the Sun) throughout the day.

Forecast: Day one (08 Dec) is expected to see a gradual decrease in solar wind speeds as CH HSS effects begin to wane throughout the day. By day two (09 Dec), CH HSS effects are expected to continue waning. Day three (10 Dec) is expected to see an enhancement in solar wind speeds and IMF total field strength due to a possible co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of another isolated, positive polarity CH HSS. As the CH HSS rotates into geoeffective position later on day three, solar wind speeds are expected to increase to around 600 km/s.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels as lingering CH HSS effects continued.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for an isolated active period, are expected for the remainder of day one (08 Dec) and into day two (09 Dec) as the geomagnetic field remains agitated under waning CH HSS effects. Day three (10 Dec) is expected to see quiet to active levels, with G1-Minor storming likely later in the day, as effects from the next CH HSS begin to influence the Earths magnetosphere.

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