[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to an isolated C4/Sf flare from Region 2462 (N09E48, Hsx/alpha) at 04/1710 UTC. The flare coincided with a small filament eruption NE of the region. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed off the east limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 04/1736 UTC. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective. New flux emergence was observed in Region 2462. Slight growth and separation was observed in Region 2463 (S12E58, Dao/beta), which was responsible for several B-class flares over the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels over the next three days (05-07 Dec) with a chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 1470 pfu observed at 04/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on day one (05 Dec). Normal to moderate levels are expected on days two and three (06-07 Dec) due to electron redistribution as another coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becomes geoeffective. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated a slight increase in total field and solar wind speed. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 375 km/s early in the period to near 415 km/s. Total field increased from 6 nT to 10 nT. The Bz component was variable between +/-7 nT until a prolonged period of southward Bz near -9 nT occurred between 05/0607-0829 UTC. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive (away) sector throughout the period.

Forecast: An slight increase in solar wind parameters is likely to continue through the rest of day one (05 Dec). Days two and three (06-07 Dec) are expected to see enhanced levels due to effects from a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by an associated CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active periods were observed during the 05/0600-1200 UTC periods due to a prolonged period of southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for the rest of the UTC day on day one (05 Dec). Days two and three (06-07 Dec) are likely to see active to G1 (Minor) storm conditions due to effects from a CIR and subsequent CH HSS.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation