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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 248 (N09W79, Cro/beta) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C1 flare at 03/0628 UTC. The region mostly decayed over the past 24 hours with three small spots by the periods end. All other regions were quiet and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels over the next three days (03-05 Dec) with a slight chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 1420 pfu at 02/1715 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one and two (03-04 Dec) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects from the previous few days. Normal to moderate levels are expected on day three (05 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, indicated a mostly nominal wind regime. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) was steady near 5-6 nT. The Bz component was variable between -6 and +4. Wind speeds ranged from between 400 - 450 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive (away) over the past 24 hours.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue at near background conditions on day one (03 Dec). A weak disturbance in the IMF may occur on day two (04 Dec) due to a possible transient associated with the C3 flare of 01 Dec. Day three (05 Dec) is expected to see ambient conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated period of unsettled conditions.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (03 Dec), with a chance for an unsettled response on day two (04 Dec) due to the possible weak disturbance in the IMF. Day three (05 Dec) is expected to see quiet conditions due to a lack of significant or recurrent solar wind features.

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