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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels as both Regions 2464 (S12E59, Bxo/beta) and 2463 (S13E45, Dao/beta) produced C1 flares at 05/1521 UTC and 05/1623 UTC respectively. Slight decay was observed in Region 2462 (N09E35, Hax/alpha). The rest of the spotted regions were relatively stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels over the next three days (06-08 Dec) with a chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, with a maximum flux of 677 pfu observed at 05/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to at normal to moderate levels on day one (06 Dec). Days two and three (07-08 Dec) are expected to see moderate to high levels due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds increased from approximately 400 km/s to near 510 km/s. Total field was between 2 nT and 10 nT with the Bz component mostly negative between +8 nT and -10 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive (away) with a few deflections into a negative (towards) sector between 05/1400-1530 UTC, 05/1800-1930 UTC, and 06/0210-0620 UTC.

Forecast: Days one through three (06-08 Dec) are expected to see enhanced levels due to continued effects from a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CH HSS activity. Minor storming was observed during the 06/0900-1200 UTC period.

Forecast: Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm conditions are expected through the forecast period (06-08 Dec) as CH HSS effects persist.

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