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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels today as Region 2463 (S09E68, Hsx/alpha) produced an isolated C1 flare at 04/0534 UTC. Regions 2462 (N09E63, Hax/alpha) and 2459 (N05W58, Axx/alpha) were relatively stable over the period. Slight growth was observed in Region 2463. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels over the next three days (04-06 Dec) with a chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 1537 pfu at 03/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one and two (04-05 Dec) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects from the previous few days. Normal to moderate levels are expected on day three (06 Dec) due to electron redistribution as another CH HSS becomes geoeffective. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speeds ranged from 349 km/s to 443 km/s. Total field ranged from 2 nT to 7 nT while the Bz component was variable between +3 nT and -6 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive (away) sector throughout the period.

Forecast: A weak disturbance in the IMF may occur on day one into day two (04-05 Dec) due to a possible transient associated with the C3 flare on 01 Dec. Day three (06 Dec) is expected to see enhanced levels due to a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) moving into a geoeffective position, followed by an associated CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period between 04/0300-0600 UTC.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (04-05 Dec) due to a possible weak disturbance in the IMF. Day three (06 Dec) is likely to see active to G1 (Minor) storm conditions due to effects from a CIR and subsequent CH HSS.

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