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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to a single C1 flare at 11/0447 UTC from Region 2468 (S15E57, Cao/beta). Region 2465 (S05E14, Cso/beta) produced several B-class flares throughout the period. Region 2464 (S09W04, Cso/beta) showed slight growth in its northern leader spot, but all other numbered spot groups were either stable or exhibited overall decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) all three days (11-13 Dec) primarily due to the instability and higher flare potential of Region 2468.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2210 pfu at 10/1630 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days (11-13 Dec) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, reflected continued coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Total IMF strength remained steady between 1 nT and 6 nT, Bz saw a maximum deflection of -7 nT, and solar wind speed ranged from 570 km/s to 710 km/s. The phi angle was in a mostly positive (away from Sun) sector during the period.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to continue at enhanced levels due to CH HSS effects through day one (11 Dec) before beginning to decrease over days two and three (12-13 Dec) as CH HSS effects wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels during the period due to persistent CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at primarily unsettled to active levels, with an isolated period of minor (G1-Minor) storming on day one (11 Dec) due to CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on day two (12 Dec) as CH HSS effects begin to wane. Day three (13 Dec) is expected to be at quiet to active levels as CH HSS effects continue to decrease.

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