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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2468 (S16W07, Cro/beta) produced the vast majority of the flare activity, including a C6 flare at 16/0903 UTC, the largest flare of the period. This flare appeared to be in conjunction with a filament lifting off the solar disk. No SOHO/LASCO coronograph imagery is available at this time, but based on the location of the source region (Region 2468), if there is an associated coronal mass ejection (CME), it will likely have at least a partial Earth directed component. Further analysis will be conducted as imagery becomes available. Region 2468 exhibited minor growth in its trailer spots and, despite being the most active spot group, it remained fairly magnetically simple.

Region 2470 (N14E38, Eki/beta-gamma) on the other hand, was the largest, most magnetically complex region, developing some mixing in its intermediate spots area, yet remained mostly inactive throughout the period. Region 2469 (N18E19, Hax/alpha) showed signs of decay and remained inactive throughout the period.

From about 15/1428 UTC through 16/0430, an approximately 22 degree long filament could be seen in SDO/AIA 304 imagery, lifting off the solar disk. Analysis of available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery indicated that most of the ejecta had a mostly northeasterly trajectory and is likely not directed at Earth.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) on days one through three (16-18 Dec).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (16-17 Dec). There is a chance for moderate to high levels on day three (18 Dec) after the magnetosphere recovers from the elevated wind speeds associated with the coronal hole high-speed stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, reflected lingering CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed began the period near 540 km/s, reached a peak speed of 654 km/s at 16/0213 UTC, before dropping back down to average near 560 km/s to end the period. The total field strength (Bt) ranged between 3 and 9 nT while the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -8 nT. The phi angle remained in a negative (towards the sun) orientation throughout the period with a short duration deviation to a positive sector around 15/1800 UTC. Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to see waning CH HSS effects on days one through three (16-18 Dec) as wind speeds continue to decrease and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) becomes less enhanced.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period during the 16/0000-0300 UTC time-frame. The isolated enhancement was likely due to lingering CH HSS effects on the Earths magnetosphere.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast period (16-18 Dec) as CH HSS effects wane, returning the field to ambient background conditions.

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