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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2473 (S22E29, Ekc/beta-gamma) was the most complex region on the disk. The region exhibited minor dissipation of its intermediate spots over the past 24 hours. Region 2472 (N03E30, Dai/beta) underwent decay in its intermediate and trailer spots. Newly number Region 2475 (N08E01, Cao/beta) developed rudimentary penumbra on the leader spot.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) all three days (25-27 Dec).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels, with a peak flux of 4,505 pfu at 24/1415 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels all three days (25-27 Dec) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were slightly enhanced. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 3 to 8 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/- 7 nT. Wind speeds began the period around 500 km/s, increasing to around 550 km/s before decreasing at the end of the day to around 475 km/s. Phi was predominantly in the negative (away from the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind and IMF parameters are expected to remain variable with intermittent speed increases and total magnetic field strength variations through day one (25 Dec) due to occasional influences of the negative polarity CH HSS extension of the southern polar coronal hole. Solar wind speeds are expected to begin decreasing on day two (26 Dec) as CH HSS effects wane. Day three (27 Dec) is expected to see conditions trend towards more ambient conditions as CH HSS effects diminish.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at primarily quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods possible on day one (25 Dec) in response to any prolonged period of negative Bz in the elevated solar wind and disturbed IMF environment of the CH HSS. Days two and three (26-27 Dec) are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels as CH HSS effects decrease.

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