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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2473 (S21W11, Fhi/beta-gamma) produced a C8/Sf flare at 28/0028 UTC which was the largest event of the period. Region 2473 exhibited minor penumbral and spot growth this period, and formed a sigmoidal signature as observed in GOES-15 x-ray imagery. Region 2472 (N04W12, Bxo/beta) continued to exhibit overall decay this period and produced a C2 flare at 27/1910 UTC. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) over the next three days (28-30 Dec) with Region 2473 being the likely source of activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak value of 7,790 pfu observed at 27/1630 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (28-30 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 550 km/s to end-of-period values near 440 km/s. IMF total field strength values reached 6 nT early in the period and Bz was mostly northward throughout the period. The phi angle was steady in a negative (toward the Sun) solar sector orientation until around 28/0600 UTC when the phi angle became variable. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day one (28 Dec) due to the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The enhanced solar wind environment is expected to gradually decrease on days two and three (29-30 Dec) as CH HSS influence wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on day one (28 Dec) due to the effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled field activity is expected on days two and three (29-30 Dec) due to waning CH HSS influence.

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