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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and
geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 28 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2473 (S21W11,
Fhi/beta-gamma) produced a C8/Sf flare at 28/0028 UTC which was
the largest event of the period. Region 2473 exhibited minor
penumbral and spot growth this period, and formed a sigmoidal
signature as observed in GOES-15 x-ray imagery. Region 2472
(N04W12, Bxo/beta) continued to exhibit overall decay this
period and produced a C2 flare at 27/1910 UTC. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) over
the next three days (28-30 Dec) with Region 2473 being the
likely source of activity.
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached
high levels with a peak value of 7,790 pfu observed at 27/1630
UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background
levels throughout the period.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to
be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (28-30
Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain
at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels.
Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 550 km/s to
end-of-period values near 440 km/s. IMF total field strength
values reached 6 nT early in the period and Bz was mostly
northward throughout the period. The phi angle was steady in a
negative (toward the Sun) solar sector orientation until around
28/0600 UTC when the phi angle became variable. Forecast: Solar
wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day one
(28 Dec) due to the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS). The enhanced solar wind environment
is expected to gradually decrease on days two and three (29-30
Dec) as CH HSS influence wanes.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled
levels this period under a nominal solar wind regime.
Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach
active levels on day one (28 Dec) due to the effects of a
positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled field activity is
expected on days two and three (29-30 Dec) due to waning CH HSS
influence.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Dec 28
20:07 UTC]()
Live
data: SunSpotWatch.com
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