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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2473 (S21E36, Eac/beta) was the largest and most complex spot group on the solar disk. It produced the strongest flare of the period, a C2/Sf at 29/2019 UTC. The region exhibited dissipation around the intermediate and trailer spots over the past 24 hours. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) over the next three days (30 Dec - 01 Jan). A slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong Radio Blackouts) exists on day one (30 Dec) but the likelihood is forecast to decrease on days two and three (31 Dec - 01 Jan) as Region 2473 continues to decay.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak value of 2,442 pfu observed at 29/1550 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at near background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one through three (30 Dec-01 Jan) after particle redistribution occurs with the anticipated arrival of the 28 Dec CME. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1-Minor levels on days one through three (30 Dec-01 Jan) due to further activity from Region 2473.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected mostly ambient conditions. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) reached a peak flux of 6 nT while the Bz component of the magnetic field varied between -5 and +4 nT. Wind velocities were relatively low, ranging from around 360 - 420 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive (away from the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Ambient solar wind parameters are forecast to persist for the early portion of day one (30 Dec). Late on day one, the arrival of the 28 Dec CME is anticipated. A shock is likely with the onset of the CME, abruptly enhancing the total magnetic field strength (Bt), wind speeds, and density. Enhancements in the solar wind parameters are expected to continue into day two (31 Dec). Day three (01 Jan) will likely see subsiding influence of the CME until the onset of an anticipated coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becoming geoeffective, enhancing solar wind speeds.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under the ambient solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet early on day one (30 Dec). Late on day one, the anticipated arrival of the 28 Dec CME is expected, likely increasing field conditions to active through severe storming (G3-Strong) levels. Day two (31 Dec) will likely see minor storm (G1-Minor) levels early in the day before subsiding CME effects lower field conditions to mostly unsettled to active levels. Day three (01 Jan), is expected to be quiet to active with the arrival of the above mentioned CH HSS.

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