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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was moderate. Region 2473 (S21W23, Fac/beta-delta) was the most complex spot group on the disk. It produced the largest flare of the period, a long-duration M1 flare at 28/1245 UTC. Associated with the event was a partial-halo coronal mass ejection signature first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 28/1212 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggest an Earth-directed component is likely. Slight decay was observed in the region over the past 24 hours. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) and slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong Radio Blackouts) over the next three days (29-31 Dec) with Region 2473 being the likely source of activity.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak value of 1,700 pfu observed at 28/1715 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux saw a slight enhancement (below S1-Minor levels) shortly after the above mentioned CME and remained slightly enhanced at the end of the reporting period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on day one (29 Dec). Days two and three (30-31 Dec), should see a particle redistribution with the anticipated arrival of the above mentioned CME, lowering electron flux levels to normal. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1-Minor levels on days one through three (29-31 Dec) due to further activity from Region 2473.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were at near background conditions. Total magnetic field strength reached a maximum flux of 6nT while the Bz component varied between +2 and -3 nT. Wind speeds exhibited an overall decline during the period, dropping from around 440 km/s at the beginning of the period to around 380 km/s by the periods end. Phi was oriented in a predominantly positive (away from the Sun) sector. Forecast: Background solar wind conditions should persist on day one (29 Dec) and into the early part of day two (30 Dec) until the anticipated arrival of the 28 Dec CME. Mid to late on day two (30 Dec) and into day three (31 Dec), an enhancement in the interplanetary magnetic field and an increase in density, speed and temperature is expected as CME arrival characteristics manifest at the ACE spacecraft.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under an ambient solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (29 Dec) and into the first part of day two (30 Dec). Mid to late on day two is an anticipated arrival of the 28 Dec CME, likely increasing field conditions to active through major storming (G2-Moderate) levels with a possibility of severe storming (G3-Strong). Day three (31 Dec) will likely see minor storm (G1-Minor) levels early in the day before subsiding CME effects lower field conditions to mostly unsettled to active levels.

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