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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2473 (S21E16, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced the majority of the C-class flare activity this period, the largest of which was a C7/Sf flare at 26/0510 UTC. Region 2473 exhibited minor penumbral decay in its intermediate spot area but remains the largest and most magnetically complex active region on the visible disk. Region 2472 (N04E18, Cao/beta) showed signs of continued decay and penumbral consolidation this period although it produced a C6 flare at 25/1729 UTC. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) over the next three days (26-28 Dec).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak value of 3,733 pfu observed at 25/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (26-28 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds were steady between 475-525 km/s. IMF total field strength values reached 9 nT and Bz was mostly northward throughout the period. The phi angle was steady in a negative (toward the Sun) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly enhanced on days one and three (26, 28 Dec) due to the influence of multiple coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSSs). Solar wind speeds in excess of 550 km/s are likely as the CH HSSs move into geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period under a nominal solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on day one (26 Dec) due to the onset of a weak negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (27 Dec) as CH HSS influence subsides. The onset of a positive polarity CH HSS on day three (28 Dec) is expected to cause quiet to active field activity levels.

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