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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 15 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2468 (S15E05, Cro/beta) was responsible for the largest flare of the period, a B9/Sf flare, at 14/1441 UTC. This region exhibited slight decay, but was otherwise, fairly stable during the period. Region 2469 (N18E35, Cao/beta) remained stable. Region 2470 (N13E50, Eki/beta) displayed some consolidation in its leader spots, while the intermediate and trailer spots exhibited slight decay. The remaining numbered sunspot regions were unremarkable showing indications of stability or slight decay. There were no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections observed in available satellite imagery.
Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) on days one through three (15-17 Dec).
Energetic Particles
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 26,580 pfu at 14/1450 UTC. Electrons were redistributed shortly after the peak electron flux was reached due to the arrival of an anticipated co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding a negative polarity, coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) and remain at low levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels all three days (15-17 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the arrival of the anticipated CIR followed by a CH HSS. The total field (Bt) showed a steady increase to start the period, reaching a peak value near 17 nT, before settling back down to average near 8 nT for the remainder of the period. The Bz component of the IMF was variable, ranging between near +/- 12 nT at the beginning of the period, before winding down to average between +/- 3 nT at periods end. Solar wind speed began the period near 400 km/s, reached a peak speed near 611 km/s, and continues to hold steady near 540 km/s as of the writing of this summary.
Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on day one (15 Dec) as influence from the CH HSS persists. Days two and three (16-17 Dec), should see waning CH HSS effects as wind speeds begin to decrease and the IMF becomes less enhanced.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor (G1-Minor) storm levels due to continued CIR/CH HSS effects on the Earths magnetosphere.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with minor (G1-Minor) storm levels likely early on day one (15 Dec) as CH HSS influence continues. The later portion of day one and day two (15-16 Dec) should see unsettled to active conditions as the CH HSS influence begins to taper off. Day three (17 Dec) should see a return to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated periods of active conditions.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Dec 15 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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