|
Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 24 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was moderate. Region 2473 (S22E42, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the strongest flare of the period, an M1 at 24/0212 UTC. The region remained the most complex on the disk, developing a delta in its intermediate spots over the past 24 hours. Region 2472 (N03E44, Dai/beta-gamma) exhibited minor decay near its intermediate and trailer spots. All other regions on the Sun were relatively stable and inactive.
A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery starting around 24/0624 UTC. The eruption was in the SE quadrant and looked to be associated with a non-impulsive enhancement in X-ray activity originating from Region 2473. Further analysis will be accomplished as additional imagery becomes available.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater radio blackouts) over the next three days (24-26 Dec). Region 2473 and 2472 are the most likely producers of solar activity.
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels, with a peak flux of 3,890 pfu at 23/1900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels all three days (24-26 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, were at near background levels. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) was slightly elevated with values between 4 to 10 nT throughout the period. The Bz component of the magnetic field was highly variable between +/- 7 nT. Wind speeds averaged around 450 km/s with a trend towards 500 km/s near the end of the reporting period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative (towards the Sun) sector.
Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to increase on day one (24 Dec) as an extension of the southern polar coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becomes geoeffective. Solar wind speeds are likely to remain elevated into day two (25 Dec) as CH HSS effects are expected to continue before trending towards ambient conditions by day three (26 Dec).
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated period of active conditions between 23/2100-23/2400 UTC.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to become disturbed and reach unsettled levels, with an isolated period of active conditions on days one and two (24-25 Dec) in response to CH HSS effects. The geomagnetic response is expected to weaken to mostly quiet to unsettled levels by day three (26 Dec) as CH HSS effects subside.
Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/
Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/
If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users:
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx
Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!
Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g
We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr
![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Dec 24 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
|