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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. The strongest flare of the period was an M4/1f produced by Region 2473 (S23E56, Ekc/beta) at 23/0023 UTC. The region exhibited growth, adding umbral area in its leader, intermediate, and trailer spots. Despite its overall growth, the delta in its intermediate spot dissipated as the day progressed. All other regions displayed no significant growth or were in gradual decay.

A Type II radio sweep (est. shock speed of 1,318 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep were observed in association with the M4/1f flare mentioned above. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 23/0125 UTC. The signature suggests the CME is propagating to the SE with an Earth-directed component unlikely.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or higher radio blackouts) over the next three days (23-25 Dec). Region 2473 and Region 2472 (N13E56, Dai/beta-gamma) are currently the most likely sources for activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels and reached a peak flux of 1,727 pfu at 22/1615 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels all three days (23-25 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were near background levels. Total magnetic field strength was between 2 to 8 nT while the Bz component was variable between +7 and -6 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from roughly 400 to 500 km/s. Phi was predominantly oriented in the negative (towards the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to remain at near background levels on day one (23 Dec). Later on day two and into day three (24-25 Dec), solar wind speeds are expected to undergo minor enhancement as an extension of the southern polar crown, negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becomes geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (23 Dec). Day two (24 Dec) will likely see field conditions reach unsettled in response to the onset of the CH HSS. Day three (25 Dec) is expected to see unsettled conditions with isolated periods of active conditions possible as the CH HSS persists.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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