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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to a pair of low-level C-flares from Regions 2468 (S16W47, Axx/alpha) and 2470 (N15W01, Eko/beta). Slight decay was observed in Region 2469 (N19W22, Axx/alpha). Regions 2470 and 2468 were stable.

Other activity included a filament eruption centered near S39E56. Further analysis will be conducted to determine if there is an associated coronal mass ejection (CME) when updated coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) all three days (19-21 Dec).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to drop to normal levels on day one (19 Dec) due to electron redistribution associated with the arrival of the 16 Dec CMEs. Moderate to high levels are expected on days two and three (20-21 Dec) as CME impacts wane. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels today. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from near 420 km/s to about 350 km/s. Total field ranged from 2 nT to 6 nT with the Bz component between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominantly negative (towards) sector. Lower energy protons measured in the ACE/EPAM continue to increase as the 16 Dec CMEs approach.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced on day one (19 Dec) due to the impending arrival of a pair of CMEs from 16 Dec. Solar wind speeds are likely to be elevated to the 650-750 km/s range based on WSA/Enlil modelling. Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly diminish through day three (20-21 Dec) as CME effects wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm (G2-Moderate) levels by mid-day to late on day one (19 Dec) with the arrival of the two CMEs from 16 Dec. Quiet to active conditions are expected on day two (20 Dec) with quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Dec) as CME effects diminish.

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