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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. The two largest spot groups on the disk, Region 2469 (N18E50, Dso/beta) and Region 2470 (N12E58, Dkc/beta), were relatively inactive. 2469 produced a C1/Sf flare at 14/0014 UTC which was the largest of the period. Region 2470 continued to rotate onto the disk. Close proximity to the limb made accurate analysis of this large region difficult. The remaining regions were in decay.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) all three days of the forecast period (14-16 Dec).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels again this period with a peak flux of 8,708 pfu at 13/1635 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days (14-16 Dec) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, reflected waning coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speed began the period at about 490 km/s and gradually decreased to near 390 km/s by periods end. Total IMF strength ranged from 2-4 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 3 nT. The phi angle was in a positive (away from Sun) sector until near 14/1100 UTC when it switched to negative (toward the sun) orientation.

Forecast: Nominal conditions are expected to continue on day one (14 Dec). On day two (15 Dec), a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), in advance of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS, will enhance solar wind parameters. This enhancement is expected to persist through day three (16 Dec). STEREO A wind data suggests wind speeds could approach 650 km/s with this negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Dec) and early into day two (15 Dec) as CH HSS effects wane. Midday on 15 Dec, quiet to unsettled levels will give way to unsettled to active levels due to a CIR in advance of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Activity levels are expected to further increase to active to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) on day three (16 Dec) as CH HSS effects persist.

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