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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2473 (S22E02, Fkc/beta-delta) produced a C4 flare at 26/1526 UTC which was the largest event of the period. A delta magnetic configuration was observed in the intermediate spot area of Region 2473 but its overall magnetic complexity simplified somewhat this period. Minor penumbral decay and consolidation, especially in the intermediate spot area of 2473, was observed along with a decrease in the frequency of flare activity and overall GOES-15 x-ray background. Region 2472 (N04E05, Cao/beta-gamma) underwent an episode of minor spot resurgence and growth mid-period along with increased magnetic mixing, but the region was unproductive this period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) over the next three days (27-29 Dec) with Region 2473 being the likely source of flare activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak value of 3,621 pfu observed at 26/1435 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (27-29 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the likely influence of a weak coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds began the period steady between 500-550 km/s but slowly increased to around 640 km/s at 26/2024 UTC. Wind speeds quickly returned to around 525 km/s after 27/0200 UTC where it persisted for the remainder of the period. IMF total field strength (Bt) and Bz values saw increases between 26/1600-2100 UTC which coincided with the enhancement in the solar wind speed. The phi angle remained steady in a negative (toward the Sun) solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on days one and two (27-28 Dec) due to the influence of multiple CH HSSs. Wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s are possible as these CH HSSs move into geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels between 26/2100-2359 UTC which was attributed to the weak influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on days one and two (27-28 Dec) due to the influence of multiple CH HSSs. Quiet to unsettled field activity levels are expected to return by day three (29 Dec) as CH HSS influence wanes.

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