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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Dec 28 0317 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
21 - 27 December 2015
Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels (R1-Minor) with
low activity observed on 25, 26, and 27 Dec, and moderate activity
observed on 21, 22, 23, and 24 Dec. The majority of the flare
activity occurred from Regions 2472 and 2473. Region 2472 (N04,
L=331, class/area Dai/170 on 23 Dec) produced an M2/Sf at 21/0103
UTC and an M1/1n at 21/1014 UTC before decaying. Region 2473 (S22,
L-331, class/area Fkc/590 on 26 Dec), the largest region on the
disk, produced an M1/Sf at 22/0341 UTC, an M4/1f at 23/0040 UTC, and
an M1 at 24/0212 UTC. Multiple eruptions were observed in
coronagraph imagery, but all were directed off the east limb and
none were geoeffective.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to high levels through the entire week 21 December - 27
December.
Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) storm
levels early on 21 Dec due to effects from a CME that erupted on 16
Dec. G2 storm condtions were observed from 21/0000-0600 UTC, with G1
storm conditions occurring in the 21/0600-0900 UTC synoptic period.
Solar wind parameters at the ACE spacecraft were enhanced with Bt
reaching as high as 18 nT and prolonged periods of southward
magnetic field (-Bz). An isolated period of active conditions was
observed early on 22 Dec due to lingering CME effects. Active
conditions occurred late on 23 Dec due to weak substorming. Quiet to
unsettled conditions were observed on 24, 25, and 27 Dec. The
geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm conditions late on 26 Dec
(26/2100-2359 UTC) due to a negative polarity coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS).
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
28 December - 23 January 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels
(R1-Minor) throughout the period. Moderate activity is likely
through 03 Jan as Regions 2472 (N04, L=329) and 2473 (S22, L=332)
rotate off the disk. Low activity levels are expected on 04-23 Jan
with moderate activity possible on 15-23 Jan as Regions 2472 and
2473 rotate back onto the visible side of the disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high levels on 28 Dec - 12 Jan in
response to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Normal
to moderate levels are expected on 13-23 Jan.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active levels on 01,
03 Jan with G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 02 Jan due to a positive
polarity CH HSS. G1 storm conditions are likely again on 06 Jan with
active levels following on 07 Jan due to a positve polarity CH HSS.
10 and 11 Jan are likely to see G1 storm and active conditions,
respectively due to a negative polarity CH HSS. Generally quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected from 13-23 Jan.
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![Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Dec 28 16:10 UTC]()
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